Tax Evasion, behavioral microsimulation models and flat-rate tax reforms analysis for Italy Andrea Albarea, Michele Bernasconi, Anna Marenzi, and Dino Rizzi
Contributor(s): Albarea, Andrea
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Material type: 
ArticleSubject(s): EVASION FISCAL | SISTEMA FISCAL | REFORMA | ITALIA | MODELOS DE SIMULACIÓN
In:
Public Finance Review v. 51, n. 2, March 2023, p. 262-310Summary: It is sometimes argued that a flat-rate tax reform can reduce tax noncompliance. The argument is, however, inconsistent with the so-called Yitzhaki’s puzzle of the classical expected utility (EU) model. The latter predicts an increase, rather than a reduction, in tax evasion following a cut in the tax rates resulting from a flat-rate reform. We study the impact of a flat-rate tax in a microsimulation tax-benefit model of Italy, which allows us to analyze various hypotheses of tax evasion behavior. In addition to the EU model, we analyze expected utility with rank dependent probabilities (EURDP) and the model of reference dependent (RD) preference, the most favorable to overturn Yitzhaki’s puzzle. Our simulations show that a flat-rate tax would barely reduce overall evasion in Italy in all models considered. Redistributive effects are in all cases, large.
| Item type | Current location | Home library | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artículos | IEF | IEF | OP 581/2023/2-4 (Browse shelf) | Available | OP 581/2023/2-4 |
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Resumen.
Bibliografía.
It is sometimes argued that a flat-rate tax reform can reduce tax noncompliance. The argument is, however, inconsistent with the so-called Yitzhaki’s puzzle of the classical expected utility (EU) model. The latter predicts an increase, rather than a reduction, in tax evasion following a cut in the tax rates resulting from a flat-rate reform. We study the impact of a flat-rate tax in a microsimulation tax-benefit model of Italy, which allows us to analyze various hypotheses of tax evasion behavior. In addition to the EU model, we analyze expected utility with rank dependent probabilities (EURDP) and the model of reference dependent (RD) preference, the most favorable to overturn Yitzhaki’s puzzle. Our simulations show that a flat-rate tax would barely reduce overall evasion in Italy in all models considered. Redistributive effects are in all cases, large.
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