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Political fragmentation and government stability evidence from local governments in Spain by Felipe Carozzi, Davide Cipullo and Luca Repetto

By: Carozzi, Felipe.
Contributor(s): Cipullo, Davide | Repetto, Luca.
Material type: ArticleArticleSubject(s): POLITICA | GOBIERNO | PARTIDOS POLITICOS | PARLAMENTOS REGIONALES | ANALISIS DE DATOS | VARIABLES ESTADISTICAS | ESPAÑA In: American Economic Journal : Applied Economics v. 14, n. 2, April 2022, p. 23-50Summary: This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability.
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This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability.

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