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Does the marginal tax rate affect activity in the informal sector? Soren Leth-Petersen and Peer Ebbesen Skov

By: Leth Petersen, Søren.
Contributor(s): Skov, Peer Ebbesen.
Material type: ArticleArticlePublisher: 2021Subject(s): ECONOMIA OCULTA | CAPITAL HUMANO | ELUSION FISCAL | IMPUESTOS | TIPO MARGINAL | REFORMA | DINAMARCA In: FinanzArchiv v. 77, n. 4, December 2021, p. 317-344Summary: This paper uses longitudinal survey data to analyze the sensitivity of informal-sector earnings to a tax reform that reduced the Danish top marginal tax rate from 63 to 56 percent. Studying a general-population representative sample, we find no evidence of informal-sector labor-supply changes caused by the reform. Looking specifically at a sample of vocationally trained males with income close to the tax threshold, we find a significant decrease in the informal-sector participation rate. The evidence shows that taxpayers' understanding of the reform correlates with the response. Finally, back-of-the-envelope calculations show the economic impact is limited.
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Resumen.

This paper uses longitudinal survey data to analyze the sensitivity of informal-sector earnings to a tax reform that reduced the Danish top marginal tax rate from 63 to 56 percent. Studying a general-population representative sample, we find no evidence of informal-sector labor-supply changes caused by the reform. Looking specifically at a sample of vocationally trained males with income close to the tax threshold, we find a significant decrease in the informal-sector participation rate. The evidence shows that taxpayers' understanding of the reform correlates with the response. Finally, back-of-the-envelope calculations show the economic impact is limited.

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