Normal view MARC view ISBD view

Local fiscal adjustments from depopulation evidence from the post–cold war defense contraction Timothy M. Komarek and Gary A. Wagner

By: Komarek, Timothy M.
Contributor(s): Wagner, Gary A.
Material type: ArticleArticlePublisher: 2021Subject(s): POBLACION | REDUCCION | HACIENDAS LOCALES | EJERCITO | AJUSTES FISCALES | ESTADOS UNIDOS In: National Tax Journal v. 74, n. 1, March 2021, p. 9-43Summary: In this paper, we estimate the long-term causal effect of population losses on local government revenue, expenditure, and debt by exploiting a quasi-exogenous change that reduced the number of US military personnel by about 40 percent between the late 1980s and 2000. Aggregating across governmental units within commuting zones, we find that real per capita total revenues and expenditures remained unchanged for remaining citizens. At the same time, however, we note several important compositional effects. First, local governments appear to have offset reductions in state intergovernmental aid by increasing property tax revenues. Second, they significantly shifted the composition of expenditures by making disproportionately large cuts in capital spending, including cuts in K–12 education, to maintain levels for current operations. Third, localities increased their long-term nonguaranteed debt to finance investments not covered by general capital outlays. Taken together, these actions run the risk of hindering a region’s relative competitiveness in the long term.
Tags from this library: No tags from this library for this title. Log in to add tags.
    average rating: 0.0 (0 votes)

Disponible también en formato electrónico.

Resumen.

Bibliografía.

In this paper, we estimate the long-term causal effect of population losses on local government revenue, expenditure, and debt by exploiting a quasi-exogenous change that reduced the number of US military personnel by about 40 percent between the late 1980s and 2000. Aggregating across governmental units within commuting zones, we find that real per capita total revenues and expenditures remained unchanged for remaining citizens. At the same time, however, we note several important compositional effects. First, local governments appear to have offset reductions in state intergovernmental aid by increasing property tax revenues. Second, they significantly shifted the composition of expenditures by making disproportionately large cuts in capital spending, including cuts in K–12 education, to maintain levels for current operations. Third, localities increased their long-term nonguaranteed debt to finance investments not covered by general capital outlays. Taken together, these actions run the risk of hindering a region’s relative competitiveness in the long term.

There are no comments for this item.

Log in to your account to post a comment.

Click on an image to view it in the image viewer

Powered by Koha