Clearing up the fiscal multiplier morass by Eric M. Leeper, Nora Traumand Todd B. Walker
By: Leeper, Eric Michael
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Contributor(s): Traum, Nora | Walker, Todd Bruce.
Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: 2017Subject(s): POLITICA DE GASTO PUBLICO | POLITICA FISCAL | EFECTO MULTIPLICADOR | ESTADOS UNIDOS
In:
The American Economic Review v. 107, n. 8, August 2017, p. 2409-2454Summary: We quantify government spending multipliers in US data using Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary model with fiscal details and twodistinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relativelydiffuse priors for some parameters lands posterior estimates in regions of the parameter space that yield fresh perspectives onthe transmission mechanisms that underlie government spending multipliers. Short-run output multipliers are comparable acrossregimes.posterior means around 1.3 on impact.but much larger after 10 years under passive money/active fiscalthan under activemoney/passive fiscal.90 percent credible sets of [1.5, 1.9] versus [0.1, 0.4 ] in present value, when estimated from 1955 to 2016.
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Disponible también en línea a través de la Biblioteca del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Resumen. Bibliografía.
We quantify government spending multipliers in US data using Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary model with fiscal details and twodistinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relativelydiffuse priors for some parameters lands posterior estimates in regions of the parameter space that yield fresh perspectives onthe transmission mechanisms that underlie government spending multipliers. Short-run output multipliers are comparable acrossregimes.posterior means around 1.3 on impact.but much larger after 10 years under passive money/active fiscalthan under activemoney/passive fiscal.90 percent credible sets of [1.5, 1.9] versus [0.1, 0.4 ] in present value, when estimated from 1955 to 2016.
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