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Inspecting the mechanism leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone by Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon

By: Martin, Philippe.
Contributor(s): Philippon, Thomas.
Material type: ArticleArticlePublisher: 2017Subject(s): RECESIONES ECONOMICAS | POLITICA FISCAL | POLITICA DE GASTO PUBLICO | POLITICA LABORAL | EMPLEO | CICLOS ECONOMICOS | UNION EUROPEA | MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS In: The American Economic Review v. 107, n. 7, July 2017, p. 1904-1937Summary: We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscalpolicy, labor costs, and spreads, and we propose a model and an identification strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles,excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask how periphery countries would have fared with different policies. We find that countries could have stabilized their employment if they had followed more conservative fiscal policies during the boom. Macroprudential policies and an early intervention by the centralbank to prevent market segmentation andreduce fiscal austerity would also have significantly reduced the recession.
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Disponible también en línea a través de la Biblioteca del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Resumen. Bibliografía.

We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscalpolicy, labor costs, and spreads, and we propose a model and an identification strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles,excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask how periphery countries would have fared with different policies. We find that countries could have stabilized their employment if they had followed more conservative fiscal policies during the boom. Macroprudential policies and an early intervention by the centralbank to prevent market segmentation andreduce fiscal austerity would also have significantly reduced the recession.

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