Does the individual mandate affect insurance coverage? evidence from tax returns Ithai Z. Lurie, Daniel W. Sacks and Bradley Heim
By: Lurie, Ithai Z
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Contributor(s): Sacks, Daniel W | Heim, Bradley T.
Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: 2021Subject(s): SEGUROS | DECLARACIONES TRIBUTARIAS | ESTADOS UNIDOS
In:
American Economic Journal : Economic Policy v. 13, n. 2, May 2021, p. 378-407Summary: We estimate the effect of the ACA's individual mandate on insurance coverage using regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with tax return data. We have four key results. First, the actual penalty paid per uninsured month is less than half the statutory amount. Second, nonetheless, we find visually clear and statistically significant responses to both extensive margin exposure to the mandate and to marginal increases in the mandate penalty. Third, we find substantial heterogeneity in who responds; men are especially responsive. Fourth, our estimates imply fairly small quantitative responses to the individual mandate, especially in the Health Insurance Exchanges.
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| OP 2135/2021/2 American Economic Journal : Economic Policy | OP 2135/2021/2-1 Heterogeneous workers and Federal income taxes in a spatial equilibrium | OP 2135/2021/2-2 Do school spending cuts matter? | OP 2135/2021/2-3 Does the individual mandate affect insurance coverage? | OP 2135/2021/2-4 The macroeconomic effects of income and consumption tax changes | OP 2135/2021/2-5 The costs of corporate tax complexity | OP 2135/2021/3 American Economic Journal : Economic Policy |
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We estimate the effect of the ACA's individual mandate on insurance coverage using regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with tax return data. We have four key results. First, the actual penalty paid per uninsured month is less than half the statutory amount. Second, nonetheless, we find visually clear and statistically significant responses to both extensive margin exposure to the mandate and to marginal increases in the mandate penalty. Third, we find substantial heterogeneity in who responds; men are especially responsive. Fourth, our estimates imply fairly small quantitative responses to the individual mandate, especially in the Health Insurance Exchanges.
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