Predicting TIF distress a statistical analysis of tax incremental finance districts in Wisconsin John Kovari
By: Kovari, John
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Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: 2020Subject(s): HACIENDAS LOCALES | TRIBUTOS LOCALES | ESTADOS UNIDOSOnline resources: Click here to access online
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Public Budgeting and Finance v. 40, n. 1, Spring 2020, p. 70-90Summary: Tax incremental financing (TIF) is the most prevalent, complex, and controversial economic development tool used by local governments today. TIF proponents argue that TIF increases stagnant property values, but critics suggest that TIF is an unnecessary subsidy and distorts real estate markets. Although case studies off evidence supporting both sides, the argument begs an important question: because some TIF districts are successful and others unsuccessful, is there a way to predictTIF distress and help prevent TIF failure? Practitioners and academics highlight thei mportance of pre‐implementation planning and strict monitoring of TIF per-formance. However, even with the most strident planning and monitoring, TIF districts still often fail. Utilizing a dataset of all 1,080 active TIF districts in Wisconsin, this paper adopts techniques popular in assessing local government fiscal health by focusing on indicators such as budgetary solvency and macro-economic conditions in predicting TIF distress
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| OP 1716/2020/1 Public Budgeting and Finance | OP 1716/2020/1-1 Looking forward to cuts | OP 1716/2020/1-2 Assessing the financial impact of natural disasters on local governments | OP 1716/2020/1-3 Predicting TIF distress | OP 1716/2020/2 Public Budgeting and Finance | OP 1716/2020/2-1 Interlocal collaboration and local fiscal structure | OP 1716/2020/3 Public Budgeting and Finance |
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Tax incremental financing (TIF) is the most prevalent, complex, and controversial economic development tool used by local governments today. TIF proponents argue that TIF increases stagnant property values, but critics suggest that TIF is an unnecessary subsidy and distorts real estate markets. Although case studies off evidence supporting both sides, the argument begs an important question: because some TIF districts are successful and others unsuccessful, is there a way to predictTIF distress and help prevent TIF failure? Practitioners and academics highlight thei mportance of pre‐implementation planning and strict monitoring of TIF per-formance. However, even with the most strident planning and monitoring, TIF districts still often fail. Utilizing a dataset of all 1,080 active TIF districts in Wisconsin, this paper adopts techniques popular in assessing local government fiscal health by focusing on indicators such as budgetary solvency and macro-economic conditions in predicting TIF distress
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