Expansionary contractions and fiscal free lunches too good to be true ? Richard McManus, Gulcin Ozkan, Dawid Trzeciakiewicz
By: MacManus, Richard
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Contributor(s): Özkan, F. Gülçin
| Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid
.
Material type: 



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OP 1376/2018/4 The Scandinavian Journal of Economics | OP 1376/2018/4-1 Education policies and taxation without commitment | OP 1376/2019/1 The Scandinavian Journal of Economics | OP 1376/2019/1-1 Expansionary contractions and fiscal free lunches | OP 1379 Revue française de gestion | OP 1379/1980/26 T.V.A. et besoins de financement | OP 1379/1981/30 Por una réforme de l'impòt sur les sociètes |
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibilities of both expansionary fiscal contractions (austerity increasing output) and fiscal free lunches (expansions reducing gover nment debt), arguments which in recent debates have been suppor ted by the austerity and stimulus camps, respectively. We propose a new metric quantifying the budgetary implications of
fiscal action, a key aspect of fiscal policy particularly at the monetary zero lower bound. We find that austerity needs to be highly persistent and credible in order to be expansionary, and stimulus needs to be temporary, responsive, and well-targeted in order to lower debt. We conclude that neither is likely, especially during periods of economic distress.
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