On the political economy of national tax revenue forecast evidence from OECD countries Beate Jochimsen, Robert Lehmann
By: Jochimsen, Beate
.
Contributor(s): Lehmann, Robert.
Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: 2017Subject(s): POLITICA ECONOMICA | INGRESOS FISCALES | RECAUDACION | IMPUESTOS | PARTIDOS POLITICOS
In:
Public Choice v. 170, n. 3-4, March 2017, p. 211-230Summary: Sustainable budgets are important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians might thus have an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts,which are widely regarded as a key element of national budget plans. Looking atthe time period from 1996 to 2012, we systematically analyze whether national tax revenue forecasts in 18 OECD countries are biased due to political manipulation. Drawing on theories from the field of political economy, we test three hypotheses using panel estimation techniques. We find support for partisan politics. Left-wing governments seem to produce more optimistic, or less pessimistic, tax revenue forecasts than do right-wing ones. Contrary to the theoretical prediction based on the ..common pool.. problem, we find that more fragmented governmentsand parliaments tend to produce more pessimistic, or less optimistic, tax revenue forecasts.We find no empirical evidence that political business cycles playa role in tax revenueforecasts.
| Item type | Current location | Home library | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEF | OP 1443/2017/170/3/4-1 (Browse shelf) | Available |
Browsing IEF Shelves Close shelf browser
| No cover image available | No cover image available | No cover image available | No cover image available | No cover image available | No cover image available | No cover image available | ||
| OP 1443/2016/168/3/4-3 Seeing the forest through the trees | OP 1443/2016/169/3/4 Political violence | OP 1443/2017/170/1/2 Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts ? | OP 1443/2017/170/3/4-1 On the political economy of national tax revenue forecast | OP 1443/2017/170/3/4-2 The effect of school district and minicipal government financial health information on local tax election outcomes | OP 1443/2017/171/1/2 The political economy of sales taxes and sales tax exemptions | OP 1443/2017/171/3/4 Decentralization and the duration of fiscal consolidation |
Disponible también en línea a través de la Biblioteca del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Resumen. Conclusión. Bibliografía. Apéndice.
Sustainable budgets are important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians might thus have an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts,which are widely regarded as a key element of national budget plans. Looking atthe time period from 1996 to 2012, we systematically analyze whether national tax revenue forecasts in 18 OECD countries are biased due to political manipulation. Drawing on theories from the field of political economy, we test three hypotheses using panel estimation techniques. We find support for partisan politics. Left-wing governments seem to produce more optimistic, or less pessimistic, tax revenue forecasts than do right-wing ones. Contrary to the theoretical prediction based on the ..common pool.. problem, we find that more fragmented governmentsand parliaments tend to produce more pessimistic, or less optimistic, tax revenue forecasts.We find no empirical evidence that political business cycles playa role in tax revenueforecasts.
There are no comments for this item.