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Output Effects of a Measure of Tax Shocks Based on Changes in Legislation for Portugal Manuel Coutinho Pereira, Lara Wemans

By: Pereira, Manuel Coutinho.
Contributor(s): Wemans, Lara.
Material type: ArticleArticlePublisher: 2015Subject(s): PORTUGAL | POLITICA FISCAL | IMPUESTOS | LEGISLACION | ESTABILIZACION ECONOMICA | PRODUCTO INTERIOR BRUTO | CONSUMOOnline resources: Click here to access online In: Hacienda Pública Española n. 215 (4/2015), p. 27-62Summary: This paper develops a new measure of quarterly discretionary tax shocks for Portugal resulting from changes in legislation, following the narrative approach. A comprehensive analysis of tax policy mea-sures in the period 1996-2012 was undertaken. The findings point to strongly negative and persistent effects of legislated tax increases on GDP and private consumption, matching the tendency of the narrative approach to yield comparatively high tax multipliers.
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Dispone de versión electrónica. Resumen. Bibliografía. Conclusión.

This paper develops a new measure of quarterly discretionary tax shocks for Portugal resulting from changes in legislation, following the narrative approach. A comprehensive analysis of tax policy mea-sures in the period 1996-2012 was undertaken. The findings point to strongly negative and persistent effects of legislated tax increases on GDP and private consumption, matching the tendency of the narrative approach to yield comparatively high tax multipliers.

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