Chirinko, Robert S.
Job creation tax credits, fiscal foresight and job growth / Robert S. Chirinko and Daniel J. Wilson
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
We study fiscal foresight using state panel variation in job creation tax credits (JCTCs) and their implementation lags. Using inverse probability weighting to address potential endogeneity, we estimate the dynamic effects of JCTCs during implementation lags, when they go into effect, and afterward. Failing to account for the distorting effects of fiscal foresight results in upwardly biased estimates of their initial impact by about one-third. The true initial impact is small. However, the longer-run cumulative effect is economically significant and implies a fairly low cost per job of approximately $15,000 and a local fiscal multiplier of 1.11–4.22.
https://doi.org/10.1086/724973
CREACIÓN DE EMPLEO
INCENTIVOS FISCALES
GASTOS FISCALES
EMPLEO
POLITICA FISCAL
ESTADOS UNIDOS
Wilson, Daniel J.
National Tax Journal, 0028-0283, v. 76, n. 3, September 2023, p. 481–523
Job creation tax credits, fiscal foresight and job growth / Robert S. Chirinko and Daniel J. Wilson
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
We study fiscal foresight using state panel variation in job creation tax credits (JCTCs) and their implementation lags. Using inverse probability weighting to address potential endogeneity, we estimate the dynamic effects of JCTCs during implementation lags, when they go into effect, and afterward. Failing to account for the distorting effects of fiscal foresight results in upwardly biased estimates of their initial impact by about one-third. The true initial impact is small. However, the longer-run cumulative effect is economically significant and implies a fairly low cost per job of approximately $15,000 and a local fiscal multiplier of 1.11–4.22.
https://doi.org/10.1086/724973
CREACIÓN DE EMPLEO
INCENTIVOS FISCALES
GASTOS FISCALES
EMPLEO
POLITICA FISCAL
ESTADOS UNIDOS
Wilson, Daniel J.
National Tax Journal, 0028-0283, v. 76, n. 3, September 2023, p. 481–523