Mertens, Karel
Marginal tax rates and income new time series evidence / Karel Mertens and José Luis Montiel Olea .-- , 2018
Disponible también en formato electrónico a través de la Biblioteca del IEF.
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
Using new narrative measures of exogenous variation in marginal tax rates associated with postwar tax reforms in the United States, this study estimates short-run tax elasticities of reported income of around 1.2 based on time series from 1946 to 2012. Estimated elasticities are larger in the top 1% of the income distribution but are also positive and statistically significant for other income groups. Previous time series studies of tax returns data have found little evidence for income responses to taxes outside the top of the income distribution. The different results in this article arise because of additional efforts to account for dynamics, expectations, and especially the endogeneity of tax policy decisions. Marginal rate cuts lead to increases in real GDP and declines in unemployment.
There is also evidence that the responses are to marginal tax rates rather than average tax rates. Counterfactual tax cuts targeting the top 1%alone are estimated to have short-run positive effects on economic activity and incomes outside of the
top 1%, but to increase inequality in pretax incomes. Cuts for taxpayers outside of the top 1% also lead to increases in incomes and economic activity, but with a longer delay
RENTA
IMPUESTOS
TIPOS DE GRAVAMEN
ELASTICIDAD IMPOSITIVA
ESTADOS UNIDOS
ANALISIS DE SERIES TEMPORALES
Montiel Olea, José Luis
The Quarterly Journal of Economics 0033-5533v. 133, Issue 4, November 2018, p. 1803-1884
Marginal tax rates and income new time series evidence / Karel Mertens and José Luis Montiel Olea .-- , 2018
Disponible también en formato electrónico a través de la Biblioteca del IEF.
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
Using new narrative measures of exogenous variation in marginal tax rates associated with postwar tax reforms in the United States, this study estimates short-run tax elasticities of reported income of around 1.2 based on time series from 1946 to 2012. Estimated elasticities are larger in the top 1% of the income distribution but are also positive and statistically significant for other income groups. Previous time series studies of tax returns data have found little evidence for income responses to taxes outside the top of the income distribution. The different results in this article arise because of additional efforts to account for dynamics, expectations, and especially the endogeneity of tax policy decisions. Marginal rate cuts lead to increases in real GDP and declines in unemployment.
There is also evidence that the responses are to marginal tax rates rather than average tax rates. Counterfactual tax cuts targeting the top 1%alone are estimated to have short-run positive effects on economic activity and incomes outside of the
top 1%, but to increase inequality in pretax incomes. Cuts for taxpayers outside of the top 1% also lead to increases in incomes and economic activity, but with a longer delay
RENTA
IMPUESTOS
TIPOS DE GRAVAMEN
ELASTICIDAD IMPOSITIVA
ESTADOS UNIDOS
ANALISIS DE SERIES TEMPORALES
Montiel Olea, José Luis
The Quarterly Journal of Economics 0033-5533v. 133, Issue 4, November 2018, p. 1803-1884