Heinemann, Friedrich
Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis / Friedrich Heinemann, Marc-Daniel Moessinger, Mustafa Yeter .-- , 2018
Disponible únicamente en formato electrónico a través de la Biblioteca del IEF.
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
We implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules based on 30 studies published in the last decade. The existing empirical evidence points to a
constraining effect of rules on fiscal aggregates. However, this seemingly optimistic message is strongly weakened as our analysis points to a bias if the potential endogeneity of fiscal rules is not explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, our analysis provides evidence for the presence of a publication bias. Both sources of bias reduce the statistical precision of obtained effects below usual levels of statistical significance. In addition, we offer suggestive evidence for the effect size
based on a small coherent sub-sample and provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.
POLITICA FISCAL
DERECHO TRIBUTARIO
HACIENDA PUBLICA
ANÁLISIS DE REGRESIÓN
Moessinger, Marc Daniel
Yeter, Mustafa
European Journal of Political Economy 0176-2680 n. 51, 2018, p. 69-92
Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis / Friedrich Heinemann, Marc-Daniel Moessinger, Mustafa Yeter .-- , 2018
Disponible únicamente en formato electrónico a través de la Biblioteca del IEF.
Resumen.
Bibliografía.
We implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules based on 30 studies published in the last decade. The existing empirical evidence points to a
constraining effect of rules on fiscal aggregates. However, this seemingly optimistic message is strongly weakened as our analysis points to a bias if the potential endogeneity of fiscal rules is not explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, our analysis provides evidence for the presence of a publication bias. Both sources of bias reduce the statistical precision of obtained effects below usual levels of statistical significance. In addition, we offer suggestive evidence for the effect size
based on a small coherent sub-sample and provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.
POLITICA FISCAL
DERECHO TRIBUTARIO
HACIENDA PUBLICA
ANÁLISIS DE REGRESIÓN
Moessinger, Marc Daniel
Yeter, Mustafa
European Journal of Political Economy 0176-2680 n. 51, 2018, p. 69-92