Agnello, Luca
How do fiscal consolidation and fiscal stimuli impact on the synchronization of business cycles ? / Luca Agnello, Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Ricardo M. Sousa .-- , 2017
Disponible en línea a través de la Biblioteca del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Resumen. Conclusión. Bibliografía.
Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii)an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchangerates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronizationof business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty anda reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movementof businesscycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.
POLITICA FISCAL
CONSOLIDACION
INCENTIVOS FISCALES
CICLOS ECONOMICOS
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
Sousa, Ricardo Magalhaes
Bulletin of Economic Researchv. 69, n. 4, October 2017, p. 309-329
How do fiscal consolidation and fiscal stimuli impact on the synchronization of business cycles ? / Luca Agnello, Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Ricardo M. Sousa .-- , 2017
Disponible en línea a través de la Biblioteca del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Resumen. Conclusión. Bibliografía.
Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii)an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchangerates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronizationof business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty anda reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movementof businesscycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.
POLITICA FISCAL
CONSOLIDACION
INCENTIVOS FISCALES
CICLOS ECONOMICOS
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
Sousa, Ricardo Magalhaes
Bulletin of Economic Researchv. 69, n. 4, October 2017, p. 309-329