000			01580nab a2200241 c 4500
999			_c147564 _d147564
003			ES-MaIEF
005			20230525133309.0
007			ta
008			230525t2023 us ||||| |||| 00| 0|eng d
040			_aES-MaIEF _bspa _cES-MaIEF
100	1		_970647 _aCaldwell, Sydnee
245		0	_aTax refund uncertainty _bevidence and welfare implications _c Sydnee Caldwell, Scott Nelson and Daniel Waldinger
520			_aTransfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We investigate the determinants and consequences of refund uncertainty by linking survey, tax, and credit bureau data. On average, filers' expectations track realized refunds. More uncertain filers have larger differences between expected and realized refunds. Filers borrow in anticipation of their refunds, but more uncertain filers borrow less, consistent with precautionary behavior. A simple consumption-savings model suggests that refund uncertainty reduces the welfare benefits of the EITC by about 10 percent.
650			_aIMPUESTOS _947460
650		4	_942656 _aDEVOLUCION DE INGRESOS INDEBIDOS
650		4	_93605 _aRENTAS BAJAS
650		4	_948261 _aRENTA FAMILIAR
650		4	_aESTADOS UNIDOS _942888
700	1		_953988 _aNelson, Scott M.
700	1		_970648 _aWaldinger, Daniel
773	0		_9169464 _oOP 2134/2023/2 _tAmerican Economic Journal : Applied Economics _w(IEF)82246 _x 1945-7782 _g v. 15, n. 2, April 2023, 2023, p. 352-376
942			_cART