000			01495nab a2200253 c 4500
999			_c147131 _d147131
003			ES-MaIEF
005			20230310123435.0
007			ta
008			230310t2023 us ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aES-MaIEF _bspa _cES-MaIEF
100	1		_970396 _aPaluszynski, Radoslaw
245		0	_aLearning about debt crises _c by Radoslaw Paluszynski
500			_aResumen
504			_aBibliografía.
520			_aThe European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradually while markets update their expectations about future income. Calibrated to the Portuguese economy, the model replicates the comovement of bond spreads and output before and after 2008.
650		4	_955516 _aCRISIS FINANCIERA
650		4	_942647 _aDEUDA PUBLICA
650			_aDEFICIT PUBLICO _941783
650		4	_934579 _aCICLOS ECONOMICOS
650		4	_948147 _aPRODUCCION
650		4	_925837 _aANALISIS MACROECONOMICO
773	0		_9168890 _oOP 2137/2023/1 _tAmerican Economic Journal : Macroeconomics _w(IEF)64915 _x 1945-7707 _g v. 15, n. 1, January 2023, p. 106-134
942			_cART