000			02193nab a2200289 c 4500
999			_c142979 _d142979
003			ES-MaIEF
005			20201014122152.0
007			ta
008			201014t2020 us ||||| |||| 00| 0|eng d
040			_aES-MaIEF _bspa _cES-MaIEF
041			_aeng
100	1		_910140 _aChernick, Howard
245		4	_aThe fiscal effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on cities _ban initial assessment _c Howard Chernick, David Copeland, and Andrew Reschovsky
260			_c2020
500			_aResumen.
504			_aBibliografía.
520			_aThis paper evaluates the potential fiscal effects on cities of the coronavirus-induced recession. We provide estimates of revenue shortfalls in fiscal year 2021, as compared to the trajectory prior to the recession. Our analysis is based on data for 150 fiscally standardized cities, fiscal units designed to take account of variations across central cities in governmental structure. We forecast revenues from all of the major revenue sources of cities, including property, sales and income taxes, fees and charges, and intergovernmental aid. We investigate two scenarios, less severe and more severe, depending on assumptions about fiscal pressures at the state level and the elasticities of the various revenue sources. Our average predictions are for a shortfall in revenues of 5.5 percent under the less severe scenario and 9 percent under the more severe scenario. We predict wide variation across cities, depending on differences in revenue structures and the fiscal condition of states going into the recession. The hardest hit cities face revenue losses of 15 percent or more. We also compare revenue pressure to cost pressures from the coronavirus and find that a number of cities will experience large revenue shortfalls and high additional costs.
650			_aPANDEMIAS _967998
650			_aCORONAVIRUS _967999
650		4	_aTRIBUTOS LOCALES _948620
650		4	_aINGRESOS FISCALES _947378
650		4	_aESTADOS UNIDOS _942888
700	1		_968451 _aCopeland, David
700	1		_917547 _aReschovsky, Andrew
773	0		_9163516 _oOP 233/2020/3 _tNational Tax Journal _w(IEF)86491 _x 0028-0283 _gv. 73, n. 3, September 2020, p. 699-732
942			_cART