000			01468nab a2200265 c 4500
999			_c142384 _d142384
003			ES-MaIEF
005			20200820130901.0
007			ta
008			200820t2020 gw ||||| |||| 00| 0|eng d
040			_aES-MaIEF _bspa _cES-MaIEF
041			_aeng
100	1		_968151 _aMersmann, Katharina
245		0	_aAre debt sustainability indicators based on time-series data useful for predicting crises? _c Katharina Mersmann and Frank Westermann
260			_c2020
500			_aDisponible también en formato electrónico.
500			_aResumen.
504			_aBibliografía.
520			_aA large literature in empirical public finance applies time-series techniques to historical data and draws inference about public debt sustainability of individual countries. These methods include unit-root tests on primary deficits and cointegration between revenue and expenditure, as well as fiscal reaction functions. In this note, we take a systematic approach to evaluating the in- and out-of-sample performance of various methods in predicting sovereign debt crises. In a panel-logit regression analysis for 31 countries, we find that the benefits for forecasting are surprisingly small.
650		4	_942647 _aDEUDA PUBLICA
650		4	_965441 _aSOSTENIBILIDAD FISCAL
650		4	_937633 _aCOINTEGRACION
700	1		_92809 _aWestermann, Frank
773	0		_9162410 _oOP 207/2020/2 _tFinanzArchiv _w(IEF)21244 _x 0015-2218 _gv. 76, n. 2, June 2020, 146-164
942			_cART